A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Debates range over identity markers, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has has important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
